BostonPocketPC

The talk of the Internet yesterday was Apple's announcement of the new iPhone. I will leave the buzz to the rest of the Internet at this point (Gizmodo does have the official specs and press announcement in one place, if you're interested).

What amazed me out of all of the news and discussions regarding this new device was the "coronation" of the device as a complete success. It reminds me of a recent event...

For the past month and a half, I have followed the sports media and pundits here in the US as they essentially "crowned" a national champion in college football. Funny thing - the fact that a winner would be determined in an actual game on an actual football field on an actual game never seemed to get in the way of this coronation. By January 8th (the date of the actual game), many made it sound like the game was more of a nuisance and waste of time.

On Monday, January 8th, 2007, the Ohio State University Buckeyes actually played the University of Florida Gators for the national championship. Final score - Florida 41, OSU 14. By the way - OSU was the team that had been handed the championship by the press. The moral of the story - don't predict a winner until the game is played.

The iPhone has the potential to be a runaway hit. Notice the word potential here. I don't consider raw number of gross units sold to be the ultimate determination of success, either (more on why in a minute). To get there, however, the iPhone actually has to "play the game", and with it prove some things to me -

• From Apple's perspective, the iPhone is very new to them in a number of areas. Moving into new markets, using new technologies, targeting both new and old users. Apple is very good at overcoming all of these obstacles when everything else goes well. There is a lot in play, though, which leads to...
• The iPhone has a lot of "moving parts". New touch-screen technologies, accelerometer, cellular radio stacks, etc. Bringing this all together and making it work in mass-produced, heavily-used, real-world situations without failure is going to be a huge challenge. For those who think this is a "no-brainer" for Apple, simply look to all of the issues with the MacBook/MacBook Pro as proof of "nothing is full-proof".
  While sales of the Apple hardware have been good, customer dissatisfaction with issues and lack of response are way up. I do not ever recall a time when I have heard so many friends who are Apple loyalists frustrated and upset. If this starts to happen in the cellular space where the carriers are the front-line tech support, trust me - the carriers are going to get nasty pretty fast (anyone remember the T-Mobile/HP row with the 6300 series).
• Apple gets to play in the cellular space. Long-time Windows Mobile developers, enthusiasts and partners all know how challenging the cellular marketplace can be, especially here in the US. While being both the OS and device manufacturer (unlike Microsoft's model) can have some advantages for Apple, it can also prove to be a challenge for cellular providers who are keen on being in control. Success in the cellular space is not a given, nor is it instant. Apple needs to be prepared to not be the one running the show here. This is something that they have not had a good track record with recently, with iTunes and the various industries (music, TV, movie).
• The iPhone and price points for a phone. While this is not a major issue, Apple (and the public and press, for that matter) cannot compare sales of the iPhone to the iPod as a measure of success or failure. As far as phones are concerned, comparing these two is like comparing apples to oranges (I just *couldn't resist ). Nokia, SonyEricsson, Motorola and Microsoft have proven time and time again that making a phone "feature-rich" is not enough to justify high price-points. The true success of such devices has been the combination of manufacturers and cellular carriers subsidizing the cost of the device enough to make it reasonable. This means Apple working closely with the carriers (see point above). I do not see every iPod owner buying an iPhone, if for no other reason than the ability to actually pay for it at the current starting MSRP of $499. This is what hurt the SE P800 and early Pocket PC Phone Edition devices.

None of this means that Apple cannot be successful with the iPhone, folks. If one company has a track record for brand loyalty and making things happen, it's Apple. However, walking around telling the world that this is already a smash success without a unit hitting the streets is a bit premature. Just think about all of those sports journalists waking up on Tuesday, January 12, 2007 and thinking "How do I explain this?"