BostonPocketPC

Many thoughts are going through my mind after returning from the CES in Las Vegas. But as Steven Hughes here at BostonPocketPC is recapping the show in a few words that says it all.

"Evolutionary but not Revolutionary"

With many things to see nothing was that exciting that would give the vibes. A Lot of the technology out there was put towards new and good uses.

For example:
- Live HD radio captioned for the hearing impaired.
- Live video conferencing for the hearing impaired. Maybe next year they will probably be joining together and the hearing impaired will be able to conference with anyone in any way and it won't be a handicap anymore.

With the technology out there that we always wanted, this was the show where the applications using these technologies were able to catch up before a new technology will replace it and everyone can go back to the drawing board

The talk of the Internet yesterday was Apple's announcement of the new iPhone. I will leave the buzz to the rest of the Internet at this point (Gizmodo does have the official specs and press announcement in one place, if you're interested).

What amazed me out of all of the news and discussions regarding this new device was the "coronation" of the device as a complete success. It reminds me of a recent event...

For the past month and a half, I have followed the sports media and pundits here in the US as they essentially "crowned" a national champion in college football. Funny thing - the fact that a winner would be determined in an actual game on an actual football field on an actual game never seemed to get in the way of this coronation. By January 8th (the date of the actual game), many made it sound like the game was more of a nuisance and waste of time.

On Monday, January 8th, 2007, the Ohio State University Buckeyes actually played the University of Florida Gators for the national championship. Final score - Florida 41, OSU 14. By the way - OSU was the team that had been handed the championship by the press. The moral of the story - don't predict a winner until the game is played.

The iPhone has the potential to be a runaway hit. Notice the word potential here. I don't consider raw number of gross units sold to be the ultimate determination of success, either (more on why in a minute). To get there, however, the iPhone actually has to "play the game", and with it prove some things to me -

• From Apple's perspective, the iPhone is very new to them in a number of areas. Moving into new markets, using new technologies, targeting both new and old users. Apple is very good at overcoming all of these obstacles when everything else goes well. There is a lot in play, though, which leads to...
• The iPhone has a lot of "moving parts". New touch-screen technologies, accelerometer, cellular radio stacks, etc. Bringing this all together and making it work in mass-produced, heavily-used, real-world situations without failure is going to be a huge challenge. For those who think this is a "no-brainer" for Apple, simply look to all of the issues with the MacBook/MacBook Pro as proof of "nothing is full-proof".
  While sales of the Apple hardware have been good, customer dissatisfaction with issues and lack of response are way up. I do not ever recall a time when I have heard so many friends who are Apple loyalists frustrated and upset. If this starts to happen in the cellular space where the carriers are the front-line tech support, trust me - the carriers are going to get nasty pretty fast (anyone remember the T-Mobile/HP row with the 6300 series).
• Apple gets to play in the cellular space. Long-time Windows Mobile developers, enthusiasts and partners all know how challenging the cellular marketplace can be, especially here in the US. While being both the OS and device manufacturer (unlike Microsoft's model) can have some advantages for Apple, it can also prove to be a challenge for cellular providers who are keen on being in control. Success in the cellular space is not a given, nor is it instant. Apple needs to be prepared to not be the one running the show here. This is something that they have not had a good track record with recently, with iTunes and the various industries (music, TV, movie).
• The iPhone and price points for a phone. While this is not a major issue, Apple (and the public and press, for that matter) cannot compare sales of the iPhone to the iPod as a measure of success or failure. As far as phones are concerned, comparing these two is like comparing apples to oranges (I just *couldn't resist ). Nokia, SonyEricsson, Motorola and Microsoft have proven time and time again that making a phone "feature-rich" is not enough to justify high price-points. The true success of such devices has been the combination of manufacturers and cellular carriers subsidizing the cost of the device enough to make it reasonable. This means Apple working closely with the carriers (see point above). I do not see every iPod owner buying an iPhone, if for no other reason than the ability to actually pay for it at the current starting MSRP of $499. This is what hurt the SE P800 and early Pocket PC Phone Edition devices.

None of this means that Apple cannot be successful with the iPhone, folks. If one company has a track record for brand loyalty and making things happen, it's Apple. However, walking around telling the world that this is already a smash success without a unit hitting the streets is a bit premature. Just think about all of those sports journalists waking up on Tuesday, January 12, 2007 and thinking "How do I explain this?"  

Light the candles and sing the songs - BostonPocketPC.com turns 5 years old today! Our official launch was January 1, 2002. Where does the time go?

It really does not seem like it is 5 years already. In that time, we've seen so much happen in the world of mobility that I really cannot believe the timespans are so short. This really hit home for me earlier this year during a business trip. I went on a trip to Chicago for the first time in over 6 years. All of the "routines" regarding the trip (travel, hotel, office) were the same, but the use of mobile technology 0 totally different. Some examples -

• We used notebook computers, but connecting to the Internet was via dialup from a hotel or business. WiFi was still an "emerging technology".
• Hotspots? What are those?
• I had a cell phone, but it was used for - calling people. No e-mail, no Internet browsing.
• I had a PDA (a Palm V, to be more precise), but "content" was entirely via sync (unless you had high-end modems designed for the platform).

I found myself feeling strange doing "routine" things in an entirely different way. The trip did give me some perspective as to how far we've come, as well as where we continue to go.

When we started BostonPocketPC.com, there was so much of a world still in front of us. More manufacturers, more hardware types, more underlying technologies. We watched as Windows Mobile played "catch up" with Palm, then watched as Palm changed (time and Time again), and then watched as Palm and Microsoft became partners. We watched the introduction of the Smartphone platform, it's slow initial adoption, and it's rise to prominence and a mainstream staple in our lives.

"Mainstream" - maybe that is the greatest change we have watched unfold over these 5 years. I still remember the constant need to explain a Pocket PC device, and how it was *not* a Palm PDA. Now, it seems as though people tend to look at the hardware branding and are not as surprised when it is Windows Mobile "under the hood". With all this said, where do we go from here?

I see 2007 as another year of evolution for the Windows Mobile platform. For all of the complaining I hear from people at times about how the Windows Mobile platform "never changes or revolutionizes", I respond with "evolution eventually results in revolution". You have to take things into perspective and realize that change does not have to be massive and instantaneous to be effective. I think we will continue to see device manufacturers try to "think outside the box" in terms of industrial design. Some will be successful, while others will not. That is what happens when you experiment, right? I think we will continue to see improvements in performance (thanks to a new generation of Xscale processors and increases in onboard storage). In the end, all of this will lead to more consumer choice.

Consumers will also play a role in 2007, as I expect to see a continual increase in platform adoption. This will happen in two areas. As wireless carriers provide more and more choices for Windows Mobile devices, standard consumer purchases will continue to grow. Do not expect huge percentage increases, however, as price and complexity still keeps Smartphone adoption confined to a more "tech-savvy" demographic. The second area of adoption which may be more significant is in the enterprise. More and more Exchange Server-based organizations are discovering that the total cost of ownership for mobile messaging can be reduced by deploying Windows Mobile devices. Interestingly enough, the enterprise adoption curve may in the long term fuel overall adoption. Anyone remember why they started using Microsoft Office at home? For many, it was because it was their workplace standard.

In the more generalized world of mobility, 2007 will be yet another year of new products, platforms and technologies. The public launch of Microsoft Windows Vista is only days away, and Vista provides functionality oriented towards the mobile user. We will continue to see new products oriented towards mobility and travel - the Sling Media Slingbox's success in 2006 was (I believe) just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The use of the Internet as a content-distribution medium exploded this year, with major US and worldwide media organizations bringing programming to the Internet. Expect more of this in 2007, although the continual thorns-in-the-side that are DRM and IP debates will likely still affect the general public.

What about us at BostonPocketPC.com in 2007? Well, there will definitely be plenty to keep us busy in the coming year :) One of the things that has changed for us over time is that we have evolved much in the same way that the technology we cover has. Expect us to still be "up to our neck" in coverage of Windows Mobile-related topics. Also continue to expect us to cover the issues and technology around mobility that affect us all. I also hope that this year I can provide more coverage and exposure to those companies in the New England area that are using and/or producing solutions in the mobile arena. We have always tried to be close to our home community here at BostonPocketPC.com, and I am putting the call out to our local community - contact me if you have a story to tell the world.

I am still amazed at the diversity of readers to our site. We still receive visits from all around the globe, and I have received e-mails from citizens of countless countries over the years. I hope that 2007 keeps that history in place. Of course, none of this would be possible without the people that make up the BostonPocketPC.com team. It goes without saying that the dynamo that is Steve "fyiguy" Hughes has been the lifeblood here over the years. His knowledge, passion and willingness to share make him an invaluable asset to any community. There have also been so many others over the years who have helped make this a wonderful site. Here's to their continued involvement in 2007, as well as (hopefully) the addition of some new faces in the coming year.

I am looking forward to the coming year. I find myself with a renewed excitement and commitment to the Windows Mobile and mobility communities. I hope that you feel the same way, and that we will see much more of each other in the months to come.